প্রচ্ছদ আন্তর্জাতিক Who Wins the White House?

Who Wins the White House?

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Dr. Abdul Momen

 

It is still a long way to make any prediction, however, in spite all these 50 Mississippi Mayors’ endorsements, Hillary Rodham Clinton, I believe, cannot win the White House as she has too many ‘negative baggage’.  In the history of USA,  generally ‘Senators’ hardly win as they are highly exposed and have many negatives.  Among the 44 US Presidents, only 5 were US Senators; Andrew Jackson (1829-37), Benjamin Harrison (1889-93), Warren Harding (1921-23), John F Kennedy (1961-63) and Barack Obama (2009-todate). They have to vote on many controversial issues either for or against.  In contrast, governors that are generally unknown has a better chance to win the White House.  However, US Senators whose duration of being a Senator is short basically Freshman Senators like JFK and Obama (contested in their first term), historically have a better chance of winning as they do not accumulate ‘too much negatives’.  Giant Senators like Edward Kennedy, John McCain, Bob Dole, Tom Harkin, Richard Lugar, to name a few that spent years in the US Senate with flying colors could never win the White House.

Out 44 US Presidents, 10 governors got elected, double of Senators.  However, Vice Presidents historically have maximum chance of winning, almost 34%.  Out of 44 Presidents, 15 were Vice Presidents.  Joe Biden made a big mistake and possibly, his unwillingness to run for the 1600 Pennsylvania Ave Office gave way to a Republican Presidency after the able leadership of President Barack Obama, a savior of US economy.

hillaryHistorically chance of winning US Presidency is very low for a US Secretary of State or a US Congressman.  Only 3 US Secretary of State were ever been elected as US President and that again almost a century ago.  They are President James Madison (1809-17), James Monroe (1817-25) and John Quincy Adams (1825-29).  As it appears, during the last 85 years, not a single US Secretary of State got elected as US President as they are highly exposed nowadays. Ms. Clinton’s emails and Libya scandal are enough to put her in danger.  Secondly, only 2 US Congressmen ever got elected as US President.  They are; President Abraham Lincoln (1861-65) and James Garfield (March 4, 1881-September 19, 1881).

Ted CruzEven if Hillary Clinton wins the Democratic ticket, it is difficult for her to win the White House.  She is articulate and aggressive, yet her

(Mr Ted Cruz)

chances of winning the White House is slim because, she is a lady loaded with scandals.  Bernie Sanders is too idealistic and American voters generally like someone who is aggressive.  Historically, they never elected a female candidate or a Jewish person.  Bernie is a Jewish person from Brookline, New York and Hillary is a female candidate.  However, one can argue that Barack Obama is a Black person yet the Americans elected him twice.  Therefore, history may not have much relevance in this digital world of websites, twitter, and face book?  Is it true?

 

Moreover, Bernie started as an independent, turned into a socialist, served the US House of Representatives as an independent for years, and finally ended up as a Democratic Presidential hopeful.  It is interesting that this year, neither Donald Trump nor Bernie Sanders that are trying to lead their parties; Republican and Democrat respectively are not die-hard party operators—- they are both new  faces in their parties.  Will their rank and file support them?  Given the situation, it appears, chances of Ted Cruz for the White House is fair.  He is a freshman Junior Senator and running in his first term of being a Senator just like JFK and Obama.

trumpRepublican Front-runner billionaire businessman Donald Trump, a chance-taker has already created many enemies and his chances of winning the majority delegates after Rubio and John Kasich withdraw that he demanded appears to be very low.  Ted Cruz being a Hispanic and a Cuban decent is likely to get Hispanic and Cuban votes once Rubio is out.

Given the scenario, it appears Ted Cruz, a Princeton and Harvard graduate, a young man of 45 years of Hispanic origin is likely to be the next President of USA.

a.k.abdul_momen

(Writer: Dr Abdul Momen- Former UN Ambassador, Renowned Professor, Economist & Diplomat) 

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